Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates this week

Mortgage rates for fixed-rate loans rose slightly the week ending Oct. 3. But the rise was minimal — it's not definitive enough to say rates are trending upward.

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% APR, up three basis points from the previous week's average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.22% APR, up five basis points from the previous week's average.

• The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.41% APR, down eight basis points from the previous week's average.

You might see a bunch of "mortgage rates went up" headlines. Don't sweat it. Unless something additional happens, rates already rose, and what you're seeing lenders offer now reflects that.

So why the headlines? Well, the most widely-reported measure of mortgage rates is Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The PMMS uses the previous week's worth of mortgage applications that lenders have submitted to Freddie Mac to come up with an average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment.

The PMMS tends to lag a bit, such that sometimes it's out of step with what everyone else is seeing. For example, last week mortgage rates rose slightly, but the PMMS logged a decrease. Because that measure failed to capture last week's upward movement, this week's increase feels much more sudden than it is. Rest assured that mortgage interest rates are not actually rising dramatically.