Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates this week

Mortgage rates barely moved this week, with the average 30-year fixed ticking up just three basis points to 6.62% APR.

Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Friday’s jobs report, which could set the tone for what happens next. Last month’s weak jobs data fueled a widespread belief that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates at its September meeting.

Looking ahead, economists expect to see modest job growth in August, though revisions to prior months could once again make headlines.

Because mortgage rates react to economic signals in real time, they often move before the Fed actually makes its decision. So even if the Fed sticks to a quarter-point cut, bear in mind that mortgage rates have already eased by about that much since late July. If the jobs report disappoints, though, markets could start pricing in the possibility of a larger cut, which might push mortgage rates lower.

»MORE: Why This Fall Could Be Friendly to Home Buyers

September Mortgage Rates Forecast

Mortgage rates will likely remain steady in the first half of this month, but their direction later in September hinges on the Fed’s meeting that wraps up Sept. 17. The Fed is juggling inflation and slowing job growth, and while markets expect a rate cut, nothing is guaranteed. If the Fed cuts short-term rates, mortgage rates could dip slightly, but if the Fed surprises markets and holds steady, rates might jump.