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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Rates ease as soft jobs data pushes back Fed rate hike fears.

Taylor Getler
Johanna Arnone
Updated
Mortgage rates dipped a bit this week, as a surprisingly weak jobs report complicated the Federal Reserve's next move. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell five basis points to 6.28% APR for the week ending July 2, according to Zillow data provided to NerdWallet. The June jobs report showed the U.S. added just 57,000 jobs — about half of what forecasters had expected — which cooled speculation that the Fed might raise rates at its meeting later this month.
Most Fed-watchers now think central bankers will hold steady on rates until September at the earliest, which is welcome news for home buyers hoping mortgage rates don't climb. (Mortgage rates aren’t set by the Fed, but they are influenced by its policy decisions.)
That said, home prices remain high, so if you're shopping for a mortgage, comparing lenders is one of the best ways to take control of what you actually pay.
» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

🤓 Kate on Rates: June 25, 2026

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July mortgage rates forecast

Don't hold your breath for mortgage rate relief in July. Rates are expected to finish the month right around where they started, and dips may be short-lived. The Federal Reserve isn't in a position to cut rates with inflation still running well above its 2% target and the job market holding up fine.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a hawkish stance on inflation and a preference for fewer public communications from the central bank — which could mean more abrupt swings in mortgage rates going forward.
» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

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