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Mortgage rates went up today after failed ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran over the weekend.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.1% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 10 basis points higher than Friday but four basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Keep in mind that mortgage rates are always on the move, and that if you're tracking rates day-to-day, you're going to see a lot of volatility. Mortgage rates' movements over March and April have been primarily driven by U.S. markets' reactions to what's going on in Iran. For more on how that works, keep reading below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it.
Day-to-day events in the Iran war have been a key driver for mortgage rates since the conflict's onset, as investors' reactions to geopolitical turmoil move the markets. You might be thinking "But wait, the stock market's been doing amazing," and yes, lately it has — but mortgage rates track the bond market, and the bond market's had a much rougher go of it.
This week, we've got a couple of not-war-related events that in peacetime would be significant predictors of mortgage rates' direction. The Federal Reserve's April meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Though markets are basically certain that the central bankers will continue to hold the federal funds rate steady, sparks could fly at the post-meeting press conference as current Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be asked about last week's confirmation hearing for his likely replacement, Kevin Warsh.
On Thursday, the Bureau for Economic Analysis will release the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE. PCE is the central bankers' preferred measure of inflation, and after lagging for months due to delays rooted in the government shutdown, it's finally back on schedule.
Inflation fears are what's been messing with the bond market, since when the dollar's value erodes, so do bonds' set returns. Ironically though, if it looks like inflation's really setting in, that could end up good for mortgage rates — though not so good for everything else.
Why? When inflation's entrenched enough that consumers and businesses anticipate higher prices and scale back their spending, that can potentially put enough drag on the economy to slow inflation. But that kind of shift could also potentially tip the economy into a serious slowdown, if not a full-on recession.
In that environment, we'd be more likely to see lower mortgage rates, as Federal Reserve policy would likely shift to rate cutting to encourage spending. But all of that would be a hefty price to pay for lower mortgage interest rates.
We've seen mortgage rates ebb somewhat in April as the outlook in Iran improved, though a lot rides on any given day's headline news. That's not too bad if you're a homeowner looking to refinance, since you can bide your time and get your documents ready to go as soon as you see a mortgage rate you like.
But if you're hoping to buy or sell a home this spring, this sense that rates could turn on a headline (or a social media post) is unsettling. You may need to think through how much uncertainty you can weather, and focus on what's under your control, like your down payment savings or who you choose to be your real estate agent.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.6% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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