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News about the Iran conflict has been so mixed that you can pick and choose whether to look at the positives (possible ceasefire negotiations) or the negatives (potential escalation of attacks). Lately, the market's been trying hard to focus on the sunny side, and that's helped mortgage rates move lower.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.26% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is five basis points lower than yesterday and 18 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Whether we'll see sustainable downward momentum will depend on the outlook on the home front as well as in Iran, as we're just beginning to get actual numbers on the war's true effects on the U.S. economy. For more, jump below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Throughout March, we saw the war in Iran push up mortgage interest rates. Mortgage rates track the bond market, and fears of inflation intensifying were making bonds' fixed payouts a lot less appealing to investors. (If money's not going as far, a bond's yield isn't worth as much.)
Now we're starting to get economic data — the stuff the Nerds focus on in normal times, since it often provides clues about where rates will go — that could begin to quantify the effects of the Iran conflict on the U.S. economy. These reports can be significant predictors of the Federal Reserve's actions, since keeping the economy healthy is the Fed's fundamental job. The central bankers attempt to do this by encouraging maximum employment (basically, a labor market where if you want a job, you can get a job) and price stability (keeping inflation in check so prices and consumer behavior are predictable).
Even though the Fed does not set mortgage rates, its actions ripple out through the economy. We often see mortgage rates head higher or lower on expectations of action from the Federal Reserve. If it doesn't look like the central bankers will be in a rate cutting mood — and for this month's meeting, it most certainly does not — we shouldn't expect downward pressure on mortgage rates.
Last week, we got data on the employment front. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report April 3, revealing much stronger gains than expected (+178,000 vs. a projected +60,000). On one hand, yay. But on the other hand, the BLS collects data focused on the pay period that includes the 12th of the month, so really, we're seeing a reflection of the first two weeks of the war.
“This labor market data is not showing any impact of the war in Iran, yet. Should the conflict continue, we will likely begin to see those effects on the labor market around May or June,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet Senior Economist.
“So this and the next jobs report will probably look like many of those in the recent past: mediocre — neither alarming nor impressive.”
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to view the not-alarming, not-impressive employment landscape as an imminent threat to the economy. Jobs can take a backseat to inflation, which isn't just creating anxiety for the markets. Rising grocery and gas prices already have many Americans feeling financially stretched.
This week we'll get two major inflation reports — the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Thursday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday.
PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, but since the Bureau of Economic Analysis is still playing catch-up after last fall's government shutdown, that data's from February. At this point, February feels like ancient history. I couldn't tell you what gas cost back then and honestly, I don't want to remember.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is all caught up though, and CPI will be March data. Any hopes for a spring rate cut from the Federal Reserve have already been extinguished. But if the CPI shows that the war in Iran is accelerating inflation, forget spring — the odds of a Fed rate cut this year will dwindle.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.76% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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