Mortgage interest rates are higher today, as the war in Iran is heating back up.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.53% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is seven basis points higher than yesterday and 11 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Around 10 a.m. on Monday, President Trump made a post on Truth Social declaring that the U.S. would reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports, as well as levy a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, writing that the fee was "for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World."
This has already sent oil prices spiking to their highest point in a month. Since the war began in February, mortgage rates have tended to rise whenever fighting intensifies and oil prices jump.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
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🤓 Kate on Rates: July 9, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
This week, the Nerds are paying attention to the June Consumer Price Index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics released this morning. Inflation showed signs of recovering from initial oil price shocks, just as the renewed blockade is sending prices back up.
"We’re looking at June data and July has already brought much change," says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist. "In June, a cease fire and ultimate resolution to the conflict in Iran seemed likely. This month, not so much. It’s important to keep the lag of this data in mind when deciphering what it means for the economy and the Fed."
The good news for mortgage shoppers is that since this softer-than-expected inflation report dropped, analysts have dramatically lowered their expectations for a Fed rate hike at the end of the month. Central bankers are expected to hold rates steady once again.
There are four more Fed meetings through the end of the year, and markets think the chances of central bankers raising rates go up with each meeting.
The Federal Reserve doesn't set mortgage rates, but changes to the federal funds rate — the short-term borrowing rate the central bankers control — reverberate throughout the economy. Mortgage lenders tend to price in expected changes to the funds rate well ahead of any actual announcement, so an anticipated rate hike (or hikes) is going to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.03% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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