Fed Cuts Rates by Half a Point; Mortgage Rates May Fall Below 6%

After sustaining a 23-year high for over a year, the Federal Reserve has elected to slash the federal funds target rate by half a point, dropping from a range of 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5%.

Lenders anticipated that the Fed would move to lower rates by some degree, and began adjusting mortgage rate offers ahead of the September 17-18 meeting: Rates fell 23 basis points in the week ending September 12. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) This means that home shoppers who still find today’s rates out of budget shouldn’t expect more than modest drops in the coming days.

Why the Fed is moving quickly now

The Fed has held rates steady for the past 14 months in an effort to control inflation. Recent data shows that the economy is moving toward central bankers’ target inflation rate of 2% — the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a broad measure of price changes for goods and services in the U.S., shows that inflation slowed to 2.5% in August, down from 2.9% in July and 3% in June.

This data alone may have justified a softer cut of 25 basis points to keep inflation on a downward trajectory. However, job growth continued to slow in August, and a fairly weak July jobs report showed the rate of unemployment hitting a three-year high. Unemployment is a leading sign of recession, and the Fed’s decision to reduce rates by 50 basis points indicates that employment may have now eclipsed inflation as the Fed’s chief concern for the economy.

While this is good news for mortgage shoppers hoping to score a lower interest rate, the Fed’s aggressive move may reflect an effort to hold off “more rapidly deteriorating labor market conditions and weakening of the economy,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist and senior vice president at the housing data provider CoreLogic.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), said that the Fed’s choice could be the result of both positive and negative factors. If an unsteady job market is the Fed’s primary motivation, it could mean that central bankers see the possibility of a recession. On the other hand, it could be a good sign “if the Fed has a solid belief that inflation is conquered, even as CPI remains at 2.5%.”