Mortgage Rates Today, Friday, January 16: A Little Lower; Still Under 6%

Mortgage interest rates are slightly down from yesterday, and have maintained their under-6% streak all week.

Today's average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 5.93% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is one basis point lower than yesterday and seven basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Of note: This rate is a full basis point lower than in January 2025, when rates were hovering closer to 7%. If you’re planning to shop for a home this year or thinking about refinancing, this is your sign to start following rates a bit more closely. Even if rates aren't necessarily going down each day, you might feel more ready to make your move while the overall trend is downward.

And lastly, while the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends, as well as Monday’s federal holiday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Tuesday.

» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders

📉 When will mortgage rates drop?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

This coming week, the Nerds will be keeping an eye on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which will be released Thursday, Jan. 22. PCE is a key measure of inflation, which is one of the Federal Reserve’s main priorities when setting the overnight borrowing rate. (That’s the rate banks pay to fund home loans, influencing the mortgage rates they set.)

While the government shutdown feels like a distant memory, we’re still dealing with delayed government data. This month’s PCE will cover November’s data, which, though somewhat stale, is still a helpful marker to fill in the gap of recent trends.

Our last lookie-loo at inflation — December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released Tuesday — showed inflation has been slowly moderating. Prices rose 2.7% over the last 12 months, about the same rate as the previous month. However, that’s still slightly above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

We still have more than a week until the Fed meets at the end of this month, but analysts have been predicting central bankers will vote to hold rates steady. And any Fed chatter is likely to be coupled with discussion of new risks to the Fed’s independence, following Justice Department subpoenas involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell served earlier this month.

» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

🔁 Should I refinance?

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.43% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Credit score

• Debt-to-income ratio

• Employment history

• Down payment

• Type of mortgage

• Location and property type

• Loan amount

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.