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Mortgage rates moved significantly higher today as the war in Iran continues to drive up fuel prices and roil the markets.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.36% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 16 basis points higher than Friday and 23 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
I was last handling NerdWallet's daily rates coverage a month ago, and wow, it was a different story that last week of February. For more on why mortgage rates are rising so rapidly, keep reading after the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
If you ever wanted an illustration that the Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, this is it. Last week the central bankers elected to leave the federal funds rate alone (that's the influential short-term borrowing rate that the Fed actually does set). The Fed governors are being cautious and weighing the risks and conscientiously wait-and-seeing the way they always do.
Mortgage rates, on the other hand, are right there with the markets (and, let's be honest, plenty of Americans). By "right there" I mean "low-key freaking out." Mortgage rates had hit their lowest level since September 2022 at the end of last month, with that leftmost integer finally back at five. The war in Iran promptly reversed the downward movement we'd been seeing. Could an exit from the conflict cause mortgage rates to flip right back? It could, but we aren't going to count on that.
That's because this past month has also been a prime example of why it's so hard to predict mortgage rates. When rates moved below 6% in February, there wasn't anything on the immediate horizon that implied upward pressure. I don't remember what a gallon of gas cost, because that wasn't a big deal to me at the time.
Not to go all Carrie Bradshaw, but … and just like that, the U.S. was at war, mortgage rates jumped, and the highest gas price I spotted while running errands yesterday was $4.68 a gallon (I'm in Connecticut, if you think that sounds especially high or low compared to where you are).
The point is, just because mortgage rates are moving one way or the other doesn't mean you can ever, and I mean EVER, count on them to keep going that way. We can only work with the information that's available now.
If you're looking to make a home purchase, the best way to deal with that uncertainty is to shop multiple mortgage lenders. Comparing mortgage lenders is always a good move, but when rates are moving rapidly — up or down — it's even more vital. When mortgage rates are in flux, some lenders will adjust their rates more quickly than others. That can mean seeing bigger differences from one lender to the next than you'd usually see. (And yes, of course, this would be the same you providing the same financial info — each lender sees this stuff differently.)
Freddie Mac estimates that home buyers who compare quotes from two mortgage lenders could save as much as $600 annually, and comparing four or more lenders doubles that. Wherever mortgage rates are, don't spend more on interest than you have to! Take that extra time to shop around.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.86% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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