Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, January 22: A Little Lower

Mortgage rates are lower today than yesterday, but are still fairly close to the 6% mark where they’ve hovered for weeks.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 5.91% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 18 basis points lower than yesterday and three basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Rates fluctuate daily, but if you zoom out, they’ve remained fairly stable all month. If you can afford today’s mortgage rates, it could be a good time to start shopping.

» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders

📉 When will mortgage rates drop?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Next week the Nerds will be watching the Federal Reserve meeting, which is scheduled for Jan. 27-28. Analysts overwhelmingly agree that the Fed will probably vote to hold the federal funds rates steady, which is the rate that banks pay to borrow from one another to fund mortgages. When the federal funds rate moves up or down, mortgage rates typically follow, as it becomes more or less expensive for lenders to originate home loans.

Central bankers have voted to lower the federal funds rate at their last three meetings, so this would mark the first pause since July.

Analysts expect that this decision could be part of a larger trend at the Federal Reserve, as a January poll of 100 economists by Reuters showed that a slim majority believe that the Fed will hold rates steady at least through the remainder of the quarter.

On Tuesday, Jan. 20, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also claimed that the president could reveal his pick for the next chair of the Federal Reserve next week. If an announcement comes, analysts will immediately begin trying to get a temperature check on the new official to predict how they might steer the Federal Open Market Committee after current chair Jerome Powell leaves the post in May.

» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

🔁 Should I refinance?

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.41% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Credit score

• Debt-to-income ratio

• Employment history

• Down payment

• Type of mortgage

• Location and property type

• Loan amount

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.