Well. Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve concluded its June meeting with the announcement that they were, as expected, leaving the federal funds rate as-is. And as we say here all the dang time, mortgage rates seldom react to the Fed's actual decisions, having priced in market predictions well in advance. So what the heck just happened?
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.39% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 24 basis points higher than yesterday and five basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Rates had spent the week easing up a bit, as the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and an end to that conflict began to feel plausible. But the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections — the anonymized predictions the central bankers release every other meeting — and Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair erased that drop.
For more on what happened yesterday afternoon and what might be next, keep reading below the chart.
P.S.: Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Juneteenth, and we're off, too. With no trading, the rates you see today aren't likely to change a ton during the long weekend. We'll see you right back here on Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🤓 Kate on Rates: June 11, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Yesterday afternoon I published a column about mortgage rates covering everything we knew through 2 p.m. ET, which is when the Federal Reserve released its official decision as well as the Summary of Economic Projections. At that point, we knew the Fed was keeping the federal funds rate steady, so I focused on what might happen next: Why inflation (bad) and the labor market (good) augured higher rates to come, and also why some of the changes new chair Kevin Warsh had implied might be coming to the Fed could cause turbulence.
Please remain seated and fasten your seatbelts.
In his confirmation hearings and at other speaking engagements, Warsh made no secret of his belief that the central bankers, and the chair in particular, talk too much. He had also expressed dislike for the Summary of Economic Projections, particularly the 'dot plot' which shows the bankers' expectations for the federal funds rate.
And indeed, Warsh declined to participate in the dot plot. (Seeing 18 dots rather than 19 implied this was the case, but he confirmed this during the press conference.) Another notable change was the statement released at 2 p.m., which was notably shorter than had been the norm and which dropped the "forward guidance" that's usually included.
Let's talk about the press conference itself for a moment, which I watched via the livestream. For me, Warsh came off like a CEO fielding questions from shareholders, at times attempting levity but at others seeming frustrated at being asked for explanations. It's absolutely the chair's prerogative to choose which questions to answer; Jerome Powell, Warsh's predecessor, repeatedly refused to answer any questions regarding the current administration or its actions. But Warsh didn't want to talk about topics like inflation, brushing these questions off as regarding "forward guidance" he was not going to give.
What does all this have to do with mortgage rates, you ask? Here's the thing. Markets like to know where the Federal Reserve is headed, whether that's toward rate cuts, hikes, or staying the course. Even if they aren't thinking about it directly (though if you're focused on mortgage rates, you likely are), this stuff also informs consumers' decisions.
Some level of transparency is expected, and we did get that with the SEP. Unfortunately for mortgage rate watchers, the dot plot implied we could get a rate hike by the end of this year, with the median expectation for the funds rate rising just above its current level. What we could see wasn't terribly optimistic — and the SEP was most of what we had to go on.
Even if the Fed is stepping aside from offering much in the way of prediction, we can still look at the same data they will and attempt to draw inferences. We'll have the chance to do that next Thursday when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE. It's May data, and Warsh made the point that the Fed should be working with more recent numbers. But PCE is also the Fed's favored inflation measure, and it's a data point markets can use to try to figure out where the central bankers are going, even if they don't want to say.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.89% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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