Current Unemployment Rate and Other Jobs Report Findings
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Updated on Oct. 4 with data from the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August, according to the jobs report released on Oct. 4 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate had been below 4% since February 2022 — until May when the rate reached 4%.
Job gains came in above projections for September, with a total of 254,000. The consensus estimated monthly expectation was an increase of 140,000, according to Morningstar, an investing firm.
Job gains were primarily in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance and construction.
» MORE: How is the economy doing?
What are the weekly jobless claims?
Initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, according to the report released on Oct. 3.
The weekly jobless claims, or initial claims, are the number of unemployment insurance claims filed in the past week. They provide an indicator of the strength — or weakness — of the labor market.
Jobless claims reached 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28. Last week’s revised level was 219,000.
The new four-week moving average — a measurement of the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the last four weeks — was 224,250, which is 750 lower than the previous week’s revised average of 225,000.
What's the insured unemployment rate?
Not all types of unemployment are included as part of the insured unemployment rate. It only includes "covered unemployment," as in people who receive unemployment benefits. Those who quit their jobs, for example, aren't included in the insured unemployment rate because they aren't eligible for unemployment benefits.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate — the rate of continuous covered unemployment claims divided by covered employment — was 1.2% for the week ending Sept. 21. The rate is unchanged from the unrevised rate for the previous week.
How many jobs were added in September?
The economy added 254,000 (nonfarm) jobs in September, according to the BLS.
159,000 in August 2024
144,000 in July 2024
118,000 in June 2024
216,000 in May 2024
303,000 in March 2024
270,000 in February 2024
256,000 in January 2024
What is the current unemployment rate?
The current unemployment rate is 4.1% for September, down from 4.2% in August. The rate is higher than unemployment rates during 2023. In September 2023, the unemployment rate was 3.8%.
Is unemployment rising or falling?
The unemployment rate fell slightly from August to September after largely rising since March, when it was 3.8%.
How to calculate the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate
What is the labor force participation rate?
The labor force participation rate is 62.7% and was unchanged from August to September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working or looking for work.
The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total population that’s eligible to work. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the total population that’s eligible to work as the “civilian noninstitutional population,” which refers to people ages 16 and older who are not in military service or incarcerated.) The result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:
Labor force / Civilian noninstitutional population x 100 = X%, which is the labor force participation rate
Since October 2002, the labor force participation rate was lowest in April 2020 (60.1%) and highest in June 2003 (66.5%), according to BLS data.
How is the job market right now?
In recent months, key labor market indicators — job openings, quit rate and layoffs — showed the tight labor market is beginning to loosen. But continuous job growth shows the job market remains resilient.
What does the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary report show?
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on Oct. 1, shows job openings were 8 million in August. The number of openings are down by 1.3 million compared to a year ago according to the report.
7.7 million in July 2024.
7.9 million in June 2024.
8.2 million in May 2024.
7.9 million in April 2024
8.4 million in March 2024.
8.8 million in February 2024
8.7 million in January 2024
The seasonally adjusted job openings rate in August ticked up slightly compared to July at 4.8%. By comparison, the job openings rate in August 2023 was 5.6%.
The number of job openings in August rose in construction (+138,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+78,000). Job openings declined in other services (-93,000).
The rate of layoffs in August (1%) decreased slightly from the July rate (1.1%), according to the JOLTS report.
What is the quit rate?
The JOLTS report also shows the quit rate in August was 1.9% — down slightly from the revised rate of 2% in July. By comparison, in August 2023 the quit rate was 2.3%. Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-45,000); arts, entertainment, and recreation (-18,000); and private educational services (-11,000).
Economists say quit rates are a key factor in the health of employment prospects since quitting shows that workers feel safe making a job switch within their sector or outside it entirely.
The current quit rate is consistent with pre-pandemic levels after peaking at 3% in both Nov. 2021 and April 2022.
Are wages increasing?
Wage growth is moderating from what it was a year ago but is still higher than it was pre-pandemic, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The three-month moving average of median hourly wage growth — when measured over the previous 12 months — has slowed from its peak in the summer of 2022.
For August, the three-month wage growth percent change was 4.6%, which is just 0.1 percentage points lower than July’s three-month moving average rate (4.7%).
The 12-month moving average was 5% for August. By comparison, the percent change for August 2023 from a year prior was 6%. If you look back even further, at the percent change for August 2020 from a year prior, the rate was 3.6%.
» MORE: Is the pay gap real?
Below, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data for August shows a steady decline in the three-month moving average of wage growth compared to the peak in June 2022 and July 2022.
What does the Employment Cost Index Show?
Increases in compensation costs were smaller in the second quarter of 2024, compared with the previous quarter, according to the most recent BLS Employment Cost Index, which measures wage and salary growth. Wages and salaries, as well as benefits comprise total compensation costs.
The July 31 report shows compensation costs increased by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2024 compared with 1.2% in the first quarter.
Year-over-year measurements show that compensation cost increases slowed down slightly in the second quarter of 2024 (4.1%) compared to the previous four quarters:
March 2024: 4.2%
December 2023: 4.2%
September 2023: 4.3%
June 2023: 4.5%
For the 12-month period ending in June 2024, wages and salaries had a slower increase (4.2%) compared with the 12-month period ending in June 2023 (4.6%).
Over the same 12-month period, benefit costs also had a slower increase in the 12-month period ending in June (3.8%) compared to the 12-month period ending in June 2023 (4.2%).
Will unemployment rise?
The labor market is still tight, but continues to show signs of slackening.
The recent rise in unemployment was a byproduct of monetary policymakers’ effort to curb inflation by hiking interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. Now that inflation is consistently slowing, the Fed has taken steps to prevent unemployment from rising further.
The Fed cut rates on Sept. 18 and is expected to keep doing so in the coming months. “We're trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the announcement.
» MORE: What is the minimum wage?
When is the next jobs report?
The next jobs report will show data for October and it will be released on Nov. 1.
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
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