When are mortgage rates going to drop? Or at least stop going up? Mortgage rates move for many reasons — Fed decisions, economic data and shifts in the bond market, to name a few — and understanding what's going on can help you see what may be ahead.

But the input doesn't guarantee the outcome: A finely tuned prediction using the most comprehensive data available can be upended by one unexpected market-moving event. So whether we're trying to look years, months or even just days ahead, we can only work with what we know now.

The goal here isn't to give you a vision of the future. It's for you to have clarity on what's happening now and what it could mean is coming next. That way, whether you're looking to buy or refinance, you can feel more confident about whether it's the right time for you to make a move.

» MORE: Is it a good time to buy a house?

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🔮 Mortgage rate predictions
📆 Where are mortgage rates headed in September?
🗞️ What's moving mortgage rates this week?
📈 What are mortgage rates now?

🔮 Mortgage rate predictions

No one can know exactly where mortgage rates will be next year, but the teams of economists that put out monthly forecasts for the average 30-year mortgage rate provide a well-informed benchmark. Right now, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association are predicting rates will go slightly higher to end the year before plateauing; Wells Fargo's economics team has a more optimistic view.

The percentages reflect predictions for the quarterly average rate for the 30-year, fixed-rate, conventional mortgage in Freddie Mac's weekly survey. The most recent predictions available are always those made the previous month: currently, that’s August.

I wish I knew what was leading Wells Fargo's economics team to continue forecasting a drop in mortgage interest rates in the next quarter. One, Q4 starts next month. Two, scroll down to the next section to read all the reasons I don't think mortgage rates are poised to fall.

Technically, every forecast was higher this month compared to last. But even though the numbers are higher, Wells Fargo is actually predicting a bigger drop going into next quarter than they were in their July forecast.

Realistically though, we're talking fractions of a percentage point, not a huge change — and if you're considering a home search, that's your takeaway. Nobody's seeing signs of a significant enough fall to meaningfully change what you can afford. If you're hoping to refinance down the road, be aware that a "marry the house, date the rate" scenario may look more like a serious LTR than a couple of dinners out.

Are you a homeowner eyeing a refinance? Same deal. If your refi math starts mathing, make your move. We've seen occasional pockets of lower rates this year that put more folks in the money on a refi, but they've been brief.

📆 Where are mortgage rates headed in September?

At a month out, a prediction can point to specific forces that are already shaping mortgage rates today. Again though, you can't count out the unexpected. Mortgage rates looked poised to keep dropping back in March, then a war started.

Anyway. Here's where it looks like mortgage interest rates will go this month.

It's not spooky season quite yet, but mortgage interest rates are likely to creep up in September. The best case scenario would likely be rates staying stable; unfortunately though, there are a bunch of reasons why rates could go higher.

One, the war in Iran seems to be heating back up. Every time that conflict intensifies, markets' anxiety about inflation increases, and mortgage rates go higher.

Two, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech at the end of August significantly increased the markets' odds of a rate hike from the central bankers at their September meeting. Mortgage lenders tend to price in the Fed's expected moves ahead of time, so if the consensus is a rate increase from the Fed … mortgage rates will go up, too.

Last, biggest, and most complex, it was one heck of a summer for the bond market, and its troubles do not appear to be over yet. Concerns about the nation's debt, changing investments from foreign governments, and massive corporate bond issuances to fund A.I. have sent bond yields higher, particularly on longer-term bonds. Mortgage interest rates are benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, so where those yields go, mortgage rates will go, too.

» MORE: How the Fed affects mortgage rates

Mortgage loans from our partners

Latest prediction from ...	Q3 2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027
Fannie Mae	6.70%	6.80%	6.80%	6.80%
Mortgage Bankers Association	6.60%	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%
Wells Fargo	6.55%	6.35%	6.35%	6.30%

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Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

🔮 Mortgage rate predictions

📆 Where are mortgage rates headed in September?

🗞️ What's moving mortgage rates this week?

🤓 Kate on Rates: September 3, 2026

📈 What are mortgage rates now?

NerdWallet's Homebuying Climate Index

You're our first priority.
Every time.