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Taylor Getler is a home and mortgages writer for NerdWallet. Her work has been featured in outlets such as MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, MSN and Nasdaq. Taylor is enthusiastic about financial literacy and helping consumers make smart, informed choices with their money.
Holden Lewis is a former NerdWallet spokesman and reporter covering mortgages and real estate. He previously worked for Bankrate, where he covered the housing boom and bust. Holden is past president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors and won numerous writing awards.
Johanna Arnone helps lead coverage of homeownership and mortgages at NerdWallet. She has more than 15 years' experience in editorial roles, including six years at the helm of Muse, an award-winning science and tech magazine for young readers. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in English literature from Canada's McGill University and a Master of Fine Arts in writing for children and young adults.
Practice making complicated stories easier to understand comes in handy every day as she works to simplify the dizzying steps of buying or selling a home and managing a mortgage. Johanna has also completed coursework in Boston University’s Financial Planning Certificate program. She is based in New Hampshire.
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As seen in the mortgage rates chart above, mortgage rates go up and down daily. Rates tend to rise when the economy is strengthening, and fall when the economy is weakening.
NerdWallet’s daily mortgage rates are an average of the published annual percentage rate with the lowest points from a sampling of major national lenders. The APR is based on the interest rate and includes mortgage origination fees and discount points to indicate all of the costs of getting the loan.
Mortgage rates and treasury yields
Lenders calculate 30-year mortgage rates by adding additional percentage points to the 10-year Treasury yield. The difference is called a spread.
The spread covers lender costs like servicing and guaranty fees, and also accounts for the risk of lending. The higher the risk, the higher the reward that lenders will demand. When the spread between mortgage rates and treasury yields goes up, this often means that both mortgage affordability and lenders' confidence in the market are declining. Conversely, a smaller yield is a sign of relative affordability.
Historically, the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year treasury yields typically averaged 1.7 to 1.8 percentage points. However, as economic uncertainty has grown in recent years, spreads over 2 percentage points have become the new normal.
10-year treasury yield chart
Even though mortgages typically have 30-year terms, lenders know that few people actually hold on to their homes for that long. Homeowners who sold their houses in the fourth quarter of 2025 owned the property for an average of 8.55 years, according to property data provider ATTOM. This makes the 10-year yield a fair gauge for mortgage rates, since they have similar maturities.
Treasury yields respond to economic activity, from inflation reports to global trade news. As a result, economic factors that seemingly have nothing to do with mortgage rates — like tariffs — can actually affect day-to-day shifts in average rate offers.
The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly. The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which is a short-term rate that banks pay to borrow from each other. This frees up enough capital for banks to fund loans, including mortgages. When lenders expect that central bankers at the Fed will change the federal funds rate, mortgage rates often move up or down accordingly ahead of the next meeting.
Last Federal Reserve Meeting
Jan. 27-28, 2026
Action
No change
Next Federal Reserve Meeting
March 17-18, 2026
Analyst Predictions
Central bankers are expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at the Fed’s next meeting.
A mortgage rate lock is your lender's guarantee that you will pay an agreed-upon interest rate if you close on the loan by a specified deadline as long as there are no changes to your application. A rate lock means your rate won't change between the day you lock the rate and the day you close — no matter what happens in the market.
You may lock the mortgage rate after you have been approved and up until a few days before the scheduled closing date. As far as timing goes, forecasting mortgage rates with 100% accuracy is impossible. It's best to lock when you are comfortable that you can afford the monthly payments at that interest rate.
Rate locks have an expiration date. If you don't close on the loan before the rate lock expires, you might get stuck with a higher interest rate.
Mortgage rates from real lenders
Average rates don't tell the whole story. To get a more realistic idea of the mortgage rate you could get today, check out NerdWallet's sample rates from a variety of lenders, with real-time updates. If you see something you like, click "get my rate" to get a customized rate offer for your situation.
This loan has a fixed interest rate and a 15-year repayment term. You’ll pay more each month than with a 30-year mortgage, but you’ll also pay far less in interest over the life of the loan.
This loan has a fixed interest rate for the first five years, then updates on a regular basis. For example, a 5/6 ARM will readjust every six months after the first five years.
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