Mortgage interest rates are lower today in the wake of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which showed inflation rose 4.1% year-over-year in May.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.26% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is nine basis points lower than yesterday and 12 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
High inflation typically puts upward pressure on mortgage rates, but markets also value predictability. Because the latest PCE report came in as expected — and some economists believe it may indicate inflation has peaked — the bond market, which influences mortgage rates, strengthened modestly, contributing to lower rates.
While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🤓 Kate on Rates: June 25, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
If you’re still holding out hope for a Fed rate cut this year… I’m sorry to be the one to break your heart. In the Federal Reserve's June Summary of Economic Projections — the first of the Kevin Warsh era — policymakers' updated "dot plot" indicated they expect the federal funds rate to remain elevated for the rest of 2026.
While the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates directly, its policy decisions influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. Markets like to know where the Federal Reserve is headed, whether that's toward rate cuts, hikes or staying the course. Even an anticipated rate hike from the Fed is enough to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
A Fed rate cut seems even less likely now that we have the PCE report, showing inflation accelerating at its highest level (4.1%) since April 2023. While the PCE report is “old” data — May’s numbers don’t take this week’s oil price drops into account, for example — it’s what we’ve got, and it shows that inflation is still running higher than the Fed’s preferred target of 2%.
With inflation data in hand, the Nerds are looking ahead to next week's three employment reports — the JOLTS job openings report (Tuesday), the ADP private payrolls report (Wednesday) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report (Thursday). Three labor market reports in three days should provide the clearest picture yet of whether hiring is holding up or beginning to rebound. As a wise man once said, “triples is best.”
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.76% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
Explore more on
