If you've been waiting for lower mortgage rates, today just might be your day.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.59% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 11 basis points lower than yesterday and two basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Rates fell after the payroll processor ADP released private employment data for July, which showed that job growth fell short of expectations last month. The Federal Reserve only considers federal data when setting monetary policy, but ADP’s report gives us a glimpse of what we might expect when the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the next jobs report on Friday.
“With the overall private sector growth coming in lower than expected, job seekers outside of education and health services are likely feeling squeezed,” said Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist.
Mortgage lenders had previously expected the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate in September. Since ADP released their July data, odds of a rate hike have dropped to almost 50-50, according to CME FedWatch.
When the likelihood of a federal rate hike falls, so can mortgage rates.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
This week, the Nerds are looking forward to Friday's jobs report. This will be one of the most consequential pieces of federal data in a while, since it will capture employers' initial reactions to the war restarting last month (and with it, a renewed possibility of rising inflation on the horizon).
If the data shows that hiring slowed last month or fell short of expectations (like ADP's private sector data), the Fed might continue to hold rates steady in September. On the other hand, if employment seems manageable, higher rates may still be coming in late summer.
Next week we'll be watching the Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation. Again, since it reflects data collected through July, it will give analysts an early look at the effects of rising oil prices on the economy.
If both inflation and unemployment are on the rise, central bankers will be in the unenviable position of balancing opposing priorities.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.09% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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