Mortgage rates are essentially flat from where they ended last week.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.25% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is one basis point lower than Friday but six basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
While we're exactly a month out from the next Fed meeting, there's already a belief among spme traders that central bankers could raise the federal funds rate as early as July — with a majority forecasting that rates will be higher by September.
While the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates directly, its policy decisions influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. Markets like to know where the Federal Reserve is headed, whether that's toward rate cuts, hikes or staying the course. Even an anticipated rate hike from the Fed is enough to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
If predictions continue to build around an upcoming Fed rate increase, we'll probably see even higher mortgage rates throughout the summer.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🤓 Kate on Rates: June 25, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
There are a few employment-related data drops coming this week, the largest of which is the June jobs report that is due to come out on Thursday.
“We’ve had three months of solid labor market data,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist.
“The economy has been adding jobs and most recently, that growth has been less siloed in one or two sectors. The unemployment rate has remained stable, and though hiring remains on the low side relative to historic averages, job openings have risen, signaling there may be stronger hiring ahead.”
While strong (or at least, not weak) employment is good for the economy, it’s not exactly good for mortgage rates.
The Fed tends to lower borrowing rates when it wants to support a weak labor market (cheap access to credit encourages businesses to hire more), while central bankers may raise rates when it wants to curb inflation.
A solid June jobs report would be a further signal that the Fed is likely to raise rates sooner rather than later, because inflation has proven to be a more pressing issue than employment.
“With the labor market stable but inflation high and rising, the balance of risks has shifted, and with it the likelihood of higher rates becomes a greater possibility,” Renter says.
“The Fed said as much (without saying much at all), promising to deliver price stability in their recent post-meeting statement.”
» Learn more: Read our June mortgage rate forecast
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.75% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
Explore more on
