We're starting the week with a bit of stability from mortgage rates, which is pretty welcome. That stability is happening just north of 7% though, which is a bit less welcome.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 7.04% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is one basis point lower than Friday but seven basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
For more on what drove mortgage rates over 7%, and where they might go next, keep reading below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
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🤓 Kate on Rates: September 17, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
There really isn't much going on this week in terms of economic data releases and other planned events that can influence mortgage rates. For now, the fallout from last week's meeting of the Federal Reserve is still the main attraction.
The Federal Reserve raising the target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points wasn't the biggest news to come out of the September Fed meeting. By the time the meeting was imminent, market odds were over 92% in favor of a hike. Mortgage rates had already moved sharply upward on August inflation data, numbers which also proved decisive in convincing markets that the Fed would have to hike.
The bigger news out of the September meeting wasn't the rate hike that basically everyone expected —, it was the potential for additional rate hikes on the way. The Fed released an updated Summary of Economic Projections, where the committee members shared their anonymized predictions for major metrics. (Except for Chair Kevin Warsh, who refuses to participate.)
One of the most closely watched is the "dot plot," where each dot represents an estimate of the appropriate level for the federal funds rate — the overnight borrowing rate that the Fed adjusts — at the end of each year. The majority of meeting participants think that, by the end of 2026, the target for the funds rate should be 25 basis points higher than it is now — one more little hike.
But there's also a decent contingent who think it should go 50 basis points higher, which could be spread out between the October and December meetings, or be one sizable hike, probably in December. (Even though the Federal Reserve is politically independent, there's a lot of chatter that a rate hike right before the midterm elections could be perceived as a political move.)
Parsing Warsh's words at the post-announcement press conference also has folks thinking this isn't a one-and-done rate hike. One phrase was quickly singled out: "dose of accommodation."
This first came up fairly early in his prepared remarks. "I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," Warsh said. "This view was widely shared by the committee. So, we removed a dose of accommodation." He went on to reference the "dose of accommodation" twice more while taking reporters' questions.
Between the implication of "dose" seeming like it wouldn't happen just once, Warsh otherwise sounding like he believes the economy is strong and of course, the dot plot, markets are anticipating one or more additional rate hikes by the end of the year.
It's counterintuitive, but the Fed raising the funds rate is actually giving mortgage rates a little relief. Mortgage rates are benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which had been rising to an unsettling degree as bond investors fretted that the Fed wasn't taking inflation seriously. Seeing the Fed take action has brought down yields a bit. It's not bringing mortgage rates down, but it's at least slowing rates' upward momentum.
On the other hand though … the Fed fights inflation by raising the funds rate, and changes to that key rate ripple out to every corner of the economy. With at least one additional rate hike on deck, we're now potentially looking at a higher for longer rate environment.
So while the Fed's actions, and markets' reactions to them, are taking some of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates, don't expect mortgage rates to drop. The next potential market mover, at least that we can expect, is August's Personal Consumption Price Index, due out next Wednesday. PCE's the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and if it comes in above predictions that could spell even higher rates ahead.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
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🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.54% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
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