We're seeing mortgage rates soften just a touch this morning, but don't get too comfortable — this feels like a blip, not a turning point. Attacks are escalating in the Iran war, and last night in a social media post President Trump expressed disdain for negotiation.
Nonetheless, the average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.74% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is four basis points lower than yesterday but 10 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
But the renewed fighting has, as it always does, reignited fears of rising oil prices and intensifying inflation, so bond yields are moving higher. Mortgage interest rates are generally benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, so they go where it goes — and the yield just went to its highest point since November 2023.
But rates were already moving higher before this latest round of overseas hostilities. For more on why, keep reading below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
» Take the next step: Compare mortgage rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🤓 Kate on Rates: August 27, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news ... you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Lately, it seems like mortgage rates have only had reasons to go up.
Last Wednesday, we got July's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Better known as PCE, this is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation — and yes, spoiler alert, I've already mentioned inflation's not great for mortgage rates.
PCE came in more or less as predicted. No surprises, no real hit to mortgage rates. But that doesn't mean PCE looked good. The Fed targets a 2% rate of inflation in the PCE index. For July, it was 3.7% — well north of the Fed's target. (I should probably also mention we've been above 2% since March 2021.) So PCE certainly could have been worse, but it was hardly good news.
Then last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first official speech in that position at the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Warsh had thus far more or less refused to offer any kind of forward guidance or share his views on the present economy, and there was a lot of hope that this speech would change that.
TBH it didn't, but markets still came away with the belief that the Fed is finally going to act on inflation when it meets later this month. The CME Group's odds of a September rate hike were roughly 36% a week ago; today they're nearly 65%.
Warsh's remarks included a lot of tough talk on inflation, but that's nothing new — he's done that at each of his press conferences as chair. Still, many came away believing that a rate hike is likely at the Fed's September meeting. Raising the federal funds rate, which is the overnight borrowing rate the Fed sets, is the central bankers' main mechanism for taming inflation.
We didn't see much change in mortgage rates following Wednesday's PCE report, but Friday's Warsh speech was another story. Rates lurched upward, then continued their climb as we started this week with the Iran war flaring up again. Mortgage rates' reaction to events overseas is tied directly to inflation, as concerns about the rising cost of oil and its implications for the costs of other goods drive up bond yields. As I mentioned up top, mortgage interest rates are pegged to the 10-year Treasury yield, so as yields rise, so do rates.
In non-inflation-related news, this week we're getting fresh data about the job market. This morning payroll firm ADP released its latest employment report, showing how August went for the private sector.
It ah, well … it didn't go great. ADP found private employers added 38,000 jobs last month, the slowest rate of job creation since January. July's figures got revised upward to 46,000, but August was already lower than July's initial tally of 44,000 new jobs. August also came in substantially below market expectations.
On Friday morning, we'll get the August Employment Situation Summary, better known as the jobs report. Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the jobs report covers both the public and private sectors, so it offers a more comprehensive look at the job market than ADP.
To say July's jobs report missed expectations would be a pretty big understatement. Markets were eying an additional 83,000 to 97,500 jobs, depending on whose predictions you looked at. Instead, in July the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs. May and June's totals were revised downward, too.
Markets are hoping that July was a one-off, with August projected to show an increase in the neighborhood of 50,000 jobs. But if August's numbers show a slump, that could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans. The Fed raises the funds rate to slow inflation (and again, right now markets are predicting a quarter of a percentage point hike later this month). But when the labor market's struggling, the Fed props it up by lowering the funds rate.
If August's jobs report is a miss, the odds of a rate hike from the Fed might fall, and that would take a little of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates. Just a little, though.
» Learn more: How the Fed affects mortgage rates
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.24% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you're looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet's refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
» Time to refi? Compare refinance rates from NerdWallet’s top lenders
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
» Is now a good time to buy? See NerdWallet’s analysis
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
» Stay informed: Check out NerdWallet's mortgage news hub for all our latest coverage.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won't match every buyer's circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
- Credit score
- Debt-to-income ratio
- Employment history
- Down payment
- Type of mortgage
- Location and property type
- Loan amount
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
» Get the best rate for you: How to get the best mortgage rate
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
» Doing your research? Compare NerdWallet’s best mortgage lenders
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