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Mortgage Rates Dive After Jobs Report, but Fed Fears Fading

June 9, 2016
Mortgage Rates, Mortgages
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The Goldilocks scenario — peak home buying season and mortgage rates holding on to multiyear lows. As we continue to monitor the market, we’re looking for signs that lenders may begin to hedge their rates and ease them higher. In fact, we’re seeing the opposite. One major lender aggressively repriced their 30-year mortgage rate Thursday morning, while others made only minor adjustments. Another good reason to shop multiple lenders.

The average rates among surveyed lenders this morning are:

Mortgage Rates: June 9, 2016

(Change from 6/8)

30-year fixed: 3.73% APR (-0.01)

15-year fixed: 3.08% APR (-0.01)

5/1 ARM: 3.35% APR (NC)

Mortgage rates have fallen over the past week, primarily the result of lenders reacting to a disappointing U.S. employment report. That jobs report has rate watchers backing down from predictions of a short-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.

“Growing optimism about the state of the economy was quickly erased with May’s employment report. The disappointing release caused an immediate flight to quality resulting in the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 10 basis points on Friday,” Sean Becketti, chief economist for Freddie Mac, said in a news release. “This week marks the 10th consecutive week the 30-year rate has averaged under 3.7%, allowing an extended window for homebuyers to take advantage of these historically low borrowing costs.”

Meanwhile, mortgage application volume spiked 9.3% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association report for the week ending June 3, 2016.

Purchase applications were up 12%, as refi applications gained 7%. Results included an adjustment to account for the Memorial Day holiday. Overall, home purchase loan applications were 6% lower than the same week one year ago.

Lock or float your mortgage rate?

“After a soft first quarter, the kind of strong economic rebound we’ve seen in the second quarter in each of the past few years doesn’t appear to have formed, and this will probably give the Fed pause for at least another meeting,” Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, said in an analysis Tuesday. “The economy is only chugging along, which isn’t especially welcome, but good news is that low mortgage rates will continue to hang around to complete the spring homebuying season and beyond.”

In addition to rate outlooks, any decision to lock a mortgage rate should be based on a borrower’s risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.

NerdWallet daily mortgage rates are an average of the lowest published APR for each loan term offered by a sampling of major national lenders. Annual percentage rate quotes reflect an interest rate plus points, fees and other expenses, providing a more accurate view of the costs a borrower might pay.

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Hal Bundrick is a staff writer at NerdWallet, a personal finance website. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: @halmbundrick.